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Ath Madrid vs Villarreal

Sun 23 Aug 2026, 05:00 UTC · Round 2 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ath Madrid win: 48.8%

Draw: 25.0%

Villarreal win: 26.2%

Predicted: Ath Madrid

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 72.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 60.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.28

More corners: Ath Madrid (56.9% home / 43.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Ath Madrid

Yes

Probability Ath Madrid wins or draws: 64.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Ath Madrid Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 26%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (72.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Ath Madrid win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.